I was reading a poker and sports blog, here, and in it the author discusses hedging his basketball pool bets by betting opposite. Essentially, because of his ranking in some pools he stands to win a good amount of money if UNC wins the basketball game tonight. However, if they lose he wins nothing. Are there situations like that in Poker?
Let’s examine if a hedge is a hypothetically a good strategy in the first place. Let’s say Wild Bill stands to win $1,100 if UNC wins the game. If they lose he wins nothing. Let’s assume he’s risked say $100 to have this opportunity. So technically, if they lose he actually loses his $100 and his profit if they win is only $1000.
It’d make sense to guarantee himself at least a free roll, although reducing his profit margin by betting opposite and taking UNC’s opponent. If he takes MSU for say $250, these outcomes happen: if UNC wins he only wins $750. If UNC loses he also wins, but only $150 ($250 – $100). So in either outcome he profits. He has to forsake part of his winnings to do so hence the hedging of his bets.
North Carolina is a heavy favorite to win the game. So at first blush, it might not make sense to give up any of his profit by hedging. That’s where the 7.5 line comes in. He actually has a sweet spot now. He can win $750 if UNC wins by 8 or more points. He can win $150 if MSU wins outright, BUT since the bet is just for MSU to cover the points and not win the game, there is a sweet spot where if UNC wins by 1 to 7 points, he wins both sides of the bet. Because UNC wins, he wins $1,000. Because MSU covers he also wins $250. Thus, the hedge gives up some of his profit but guarantees he’ll win in any outcome, and also creates an opportunity for him to win even more in one outcome.
The hedge is a good play. Incidentally, gamblers should be riding the Heels because they themselves are gamblers. Read Sports Illustrated’s article here.
Now, are there ever any spots in poker where it’s good to hedge or a hedge even exists? While they aren’t always obvious there are some. You don’t need to go to poker school to sniff them out but you may need to be able to strongly read your opponents based on the board.
Let’s say you have top pair and a flush draw. Your opponent has a lower pair and a straight draw. You make a bet, that is for value because your hand is ahead, but it also could be a bigger pot builder if you both hit your draw. Your flush card hits and it gives him a straight landing in the sweet spot and inevitably insuring you’ll win a huge pot.
Other scenarios arise if say, you put your opponent on a MONSTER draw, overs, flush and straight, to your top pair. You might make a blocking bet or simply call his bet to keep the pot small. You aren’t betting your tiny, in the moment edge, because you are hedging your money based on what the turn or river may bring. You hand has value enough to put money into the pot but you feel you are a massive underdog. So, you still hedge by putting a little money in the pot but not a lot.
There are actually all kinds of hedge opportunity decisions a poker player is faced with everyday. Let’s say one player is all-in. You could move over the top and play heads up, or you might consider playing your hand a little softer to induce a side pot. Let’s say you have top pair and a draw. You put the first play on an overpair to the board and know you have to hit your draw to beat him. You put your other opponent on the same draw as you, but a lesser one. Thus, you want that guy in the pot. If things stay the same you’ll lose to player 1, but you can mitigate that loss by getting the second player to pay you off in the side pot.
Also, you have the opportunity to hit your draw win the initial pot AND win a monster from the second player who also hits his draw.
It’s important in poker, when possible, to recognize these situations and to exploit them. Don’t be afraid to hedge, give up a little profit, to possibly win a lot more in a sweet spot. Again, these situations are really hard to identify but don’t be afraid to think poker strategy outside the box even if it means going to poker school.