In football, there is a similar phenomenon of a swing play which is just like the swing hand in Texas Hold ’Em poker.  Let’s say, your QB makes a perfect pass to your tight end in the end-zone, but he trips, the ball hits him on the helmet and flies into a defensive players hands who takes it all the way back for a touchdown (a pick six as they call it).  Instead of scoring 7 points, you give up 7 points.  That pivotal swing could be the difference in the game.  That one play has far more importance than any other play in the game.  At a minimum the other team wouldn’t have scored and most likely you were going to get at least 3 points out it. 

So instead of adding three points to your total or seven if your tight end didn’t trip, all of sudden the other team has added seven of their own.  This is a terrible and unlucky outcome.  It would be far better if the interception took place when you weren’t in position to score.  That way it’s only half as costly, the return for the touchdown doesn’t negate any assumed points of your own.  Though, a football coach would remind you, that usually turnovers in your own defensive half are far worse than in your offensive half–and that is true as long as they are not returned for touchdowns.

The worse part about that decisive play is every decision afterward is predicated on the results of that play, just as the first hand you held aces (see part iii of this article) effects every following hand.  Now, you are down 7 instead of up 7.  Perhaps, it’s late in the game.  Now you have to take risks to try and make up the touchdown instead of playing conservative to protect a lead.   Those risks can lead to more turnovers and to a bigger deficit in a hurry.

In football, it’s not unusual to see the lesser team, simply by virtue of winning the turnover margin prevail in the game.  Super Bowls have been built on bad offenses with great defenses who are capable of scoring off the other team’s misfortune and their ability to create turnovers.  In poker, unfortunately it’s harder to create turnovers though what is comparable is some player’s ability to induce bluffs from their opponents.

So, perhaps the most important element of luck in a skill game is timing.  It matters when you get lucky and when you get unlucky.  The same is true in soccer.  If Thierry Henry’s lucky handball did not set up a goal and happened at the middle of the field in the middle of the first half, it’s a meaningless play, the fact that it happened when and where it did meant everything to France and to Ireland in World Cup qualifying.

Unfortunately, there is no magic way to control the timing of when good luck hits you and bad luck runs you over.  You must be able to deal with it, recover, move on, and play your best.  If you can’t, you should step away from the cash game, if in a tournament consider a two minute walk to the bathroom and back. 

 One of the highest compliments of a quarterback in the NFL is that he has a short memory.  He is able to shake off the interceptions and those critical swing plays and not be tilted to perform them again.  That should be you goal in poker, forget the results of every hand but the one you are involved in.  Remember every detail that is pertinent to you exploiting your opponents’ hands but forget everything else.